The Indian government recently announced that the next nationwide population census will be conducted in 2026-27, and will include collection of caste data. This was a central issue in the 2024 parliamentary elections, and the culmination of more than a four-decade-long demand for conducting a caste census. This would be the first census in the post-independent era where data of all castes across religions will be enumerated, beyond the categories of Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) that have been enumerated in other census exercises. The data from this census will have significant impact on India’s affirmative action policies.

India has a history of conducting decennial censuses since 1881. Post-independence, however, this exercise was ceased, as caste was considered to be a divisive factor. However, with the rise of participation by Other Backward Classes—the largest caste-based grouping of India, around 52 percent of the total population— in the democratic process, this demand has gained momentum. Recently, the Karnataka and the Bihar governments conducted state-wide caste surveys. Census enumeration has provided critical insights to formulate targeted policies for the marginalised groups in the fields of health, gender, education, employment, and housing. Therefore, the proponents of caste census argue that the upcoming census will provide empirical grounding to assess the socio-economic situation of various marginalised caste groups, while also mapping the power and privileges of upper caste groups, with caste as a category being enumerated for every caste group, challenging the castelessness of upper castes— who have most benefited from the state and market-oriented policies. This will also show how deeply unequal Indian society is and highlight the large economic divide across castes. A clearer picture of gross socio-economic stratification along caste lines will allow for targeted welfare interventions, and help recalibrate affirmative action policies, in particular, reservations in education and public service.

First, it will help with sub-categorisation within the OBC category. In recent decades, with the growing politicisation of the Most Backward Caste (MBC) in the OBCs, there was growing concern that few affluent sections of OBCs have been able to take advantage of the reservation system, while smaller and more marginalised groups remain underrepresented within the institutional framework. Consequently, there was a demand for sub-categorisation within the OBC category, which although existed in several states, was absent at the central level. In 2017, the central government constituted the Rohini Commission to ensure a more equitable distribution of reservation benefits among the OBCs. The caste census can provide meticulously collected empirical data to evaluate the representational gaps that exist within sub-caste groups.

Second, it will similarly help with sub-classification within SC and ST categories, so as to allow affirmative action to be targeted to the most marginalised communities within these groups. The Supreme Court’s 2024 judgment finally permitted this, holding that states are constitutionally empowered to make sub-classifications to the uplift castes that are socially and educationally more backwards and inadequately represented in government jobs and education. In this context, the caste census will become indispensable to identify intra-group socio-economic inequalities, enabling constitution of such sub-categories.

Third, it will help arbitrate the many claims and counterclaims of backwardness by communities that demand recognition within these scheduled categories and thereby access to caste-based affirmative action measures. The caste census will provide the data to investigate questions of relative backwardness, helping arbitrate such quota claims. For instance, many dominant communities like the Marathas, Kappu, Jats and Patels, etc., are demanding reservations in response to increasing material deprivation. Nomadic and De-notified communities within OBCss are demanding separate schedules to protect their interest. Dalit-Christians and Dalit-Muslims are demanding SC status to be expanded beyond the Hindu community. The census data on the extent of backwardness and marginalisation of different groups will not only help assess some of these claims, but also further demands to reassess the 50 per cent cap on reservations, and reassess the economic criterion used for exclusion of the ‘creamy layer’ from affirmative action benefits.

Fourth, with the shrinking of public sector employment, caste census data might also reveal the dominance of upper castes in the private sector, thereby giving momentum to demands for reservations in private universities and private sector jobs, which occupy more than 90 per cent of the job sector; something opposition parties have been discussing recently.

Caste is fundamental to understanding the social structure of a stratified Indian society. Therefore, a caste census becomes a crucial policy tool for designing targeted and effective affirmative action and welfare policies to ensure equitable access to quality education, healthcare, and dignified employment. But data on its own will not guarantee good laws without political will, making sustained efforts of opposition parties and civil society crucial even after the census.